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Some theoretical problems with the intervening opportunities model were discussed by Whitaker and West concerning its inability to account for all trips generated in a zone which makes it more difficult to calibrate, although techniques for dealing with the limitations have been developed by Ruiter With the development of logit and other discrete choice techniques, new, demographically disaggregate approaches to travel demand were attempted.
By including variables other than travel time in determining the probability of making a trip, it is expected to have a better prediction of travel behavior.
The logit model and gravity model have been shown by Wilson to be of essentially the same form as used in statistical mechanics, the entropy maximization model.
The application of these models differs in concept in that the gravity model uses impedance by travel time, perhaps stratified by socioeconomic variables, in determining the probability of trip making, while a discrete choice approach brings those variables inside the utility or impedance function.
Discrete choice models require more information to estimate and more computational time. Ben-Akiva and Lerman have developed combination destination choice and mode choice models using a logit formulation for work and non-work trips.
Because of computational intensity, these formulations tended to aggregate traffic zones into larger districts or rings in estimation.
In current application, some models, including for instance the transportation planning model used in Portland, Oregon, use a logit formulation for destination choice.
Allen used utilities from a logit based mode choice model in determining composite impedance for trip distribution.
However, that approach, using mode choice log-sums implies that destination choice depends on the same variables as mode choice. At this point in the transportation planning process, the information for zonal interchange analysis is organized in an origin-destination table.
On the left is listed trips produced in each zone. Along the top are listed the zones, and for each zone we list its attraction.
Each cell in our table is to contain the number of trips from zone i to zone j. We do not have these within-cell numbers yet, although we have the row and column totals.
The data are a sample, so we generalize the sample to the universe. That depends on the attractiveness of j compared to the attractiveness of all places; attractiveness is tempered by the distance a zone is from zone i.
There are lots of model forms because we may use weights and special calibration parameters, e. The gravity model illustrates the macroscopic relationships between places say homes and workplaces.
It has long been posited that the interaction between two locations declines with increasing distance, time, and cost between them, but is positively associated with the amount of activity at each location Isard, In analogy with physics, Reilly formulated Reilly's law of retail gravitation , and J.
Stewart formulated definitions of demographic gravitation , force, energy, and potential, now called accessibility Hansen, The gravity model has been corroborated many times as a basic underlying aggregate relationship Scott , Cervero , Levinson and Kumar The rate of decline of the interaction called alternatively, the impedance or friction factor, or the utility or propensity function has to be empirically measured, and varies by context.
Limiting the usefulness of the gravity model is its aggregate nature. Though policy also operates at an aggregate level, more accurate analyses will retain the most detailed level of information as long as possible.
While the gravity model is very successful in explaining the choice of a large number of individuals, the choice of any given individual varies greatly from the predicted value.
As applied in an urban travel demand context, the disutilities are primarily time, distance, and cost, although discrete choice models with the application of more expansive utility expressions are sometimes used, as is stratification by income or vehicle ownership.
It is doubly constrained, in the sense that for any i the total number of trips from i predicted by the model always mechanically, for any parameter values equals the real total number of trips from i.
Similarly, the total number of trips to j predicted by the model equals the real total number of trips to j , for any j. Wilson gives another way to think about zonal interchange problem.
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